Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in nine major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages. Last year, we published this explainer, addressing 12 frequently-asked questions about FBO.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at reports@ormaxworld.com.

This is the February 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major February 2025 releases in India. 

Major Hindi Films

Chhaava was the big Hindi release of February 2025, and our tracking could forecast its performance within 12% of actual. Almost all Hindi releases in February were either supported by ticket discounts (or BOGO offers), or benefited from 'corporate bookings'. The impact of such interventions, especially the latter, is not native to the FBO Model, and hence, we can expect higher-than-usual fluctuations between FBO and actual first-day box office, if these trends continue.

The forecasted vs. actual first-day box office of the five major Hindi releases of the month have been reported below.

Major South Indian Language Films

Tamil film Vidaamuyarchi was the biggest release of the month in South Indian languages. The film under-performed vis-à-vis its FBO by about 20%, largely because of mixed to negative audience response, which can impact collections as the opening days progresses. The Tamil version grossed ₹4.3 Cr in Karnataka on its opening day, which was also a notch lower than its FBO (₹5.8 Cr).

In contrast, relatively smaller films Thandel (Telugu) and Dragon (Tamil) outperformed their FBO.

The only major Hollywood release of February, Captain America: Brave New World, failed to take the advantage of Valentine's Day, traditionally a strong day for urban markets, because of the clash with Chhaava, as well as mixed to poor reviews for the film. The film's collected ₹4.5 Cr nett, which is significantly lower than its FBO on the day of release (₹7.4 Cr).

Note: There were no major releases in the other languages in which OCX tracks films, i.e., Marathi, Punjabi, and Bengali, in February 2025.