Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in seven major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at reports@ormaxworld.com.

This is the September 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major September releases in India.

Hindi Releases

The chart below captures the FBO vs. actual performance of major Hindi releases in September 2026.

The forecasts for the Hindi releases were accurate in absolute terms, with all five films opening within ₹2 Cr nett of their respective FBOs. The month’s biggest Hindi release, Mirzapur: The Movie, opened at ₹25.5 Cr nett against a forecast of ₹24.2 Cr nett, a deviation of only 5%. Vibe was similarly close, while Daayra opened ₹0.3 Cr below forecast. Haiwaan saw a larger percentage deviation of 75%, which is a reflection of its poor word-of-mouth, which impacted the occupancy in evening and night shows.

The Vvaan opened at ₹7.5 Cr nett against an FBO of ₹5.7 Cr nett. Its depiction of Chhath Puja through a song connected particularly strongly in Bihar and Eastern UP, leading to a disproportionate share of box office from those regions, resulting in an opening that was ₹1.8 Cr above the forecast.

The Paradise

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance of The Paradise across its major markets.

The forecast captured the scale of The Paradise particularly well in its two largest markets. AP-Telangana opened at ₹30.5 Cr gross against an FBO of ₹29.8 Cr gross, a deviation of just 2%, while Karnataka was within 3% of forecast. Across the four markets shown, the film collected ₹40.8 Cr gross against a combined forecast of ₹39.2 Cr gross, an overall deviation of only 4%.

Other Major South Releases

The chart below compares the FBO and actual first-day collections of the other major South releases in September 2026.

Sardar 2 was the only material miss in absolute terms, opening at ₹6.0 Cr gross across Tamil Nadu and AP-Telangana against a combined FBO of ₹9.2 Cr gross. Tamil Nadu accounted for most of this shortfall.

The other four releases opened within ₹1 Cr gross of their FBOs. Mandaadi and EPIC were particularly close, with deviations of 9% and 5%. I’m Game and Meesaya Murukku 2 exceeded their forecasts by ₹0.9 Cr each.

Resident Evil

Resident Evil opened at ₹2.6 Cr nett against an FBO of ₹2.7 Cr nett, i.e., a deviation of only 4%.

There were no Marathi or original Kannada films that opened at ₹1 Cr or more in September 2026.